Trading Notes

Trading Against The Masses (Chat Extract)

"I personally will be picking 2-3 assets and swinging them with big positions.
Then, I will take half out at half my target (To account for oversizing with position).
Then I will let the rest ride

This <<< is a great way to hedge against the market in-case of under-performance. You go heavy on the underside of the movement (first half) and play this as your medium of high probability. The rest considered as a bonus. 

For example

1. If the market bounces at 4700 a place where everyone expects it

2. You can almost expect that the upside target will NOT fufill where everyone expects

3. So in this case, one should look for underperformance or overperformance. 

In a climate like this, underperformance would be the more likely demon. This is due to general sentiment, volume and our current trend. 

Now..why does this occur?

It's almost obvious by now that the market does not fufill what the masses want Simply due to the fact that this is a shark tank where everyone feeds off of eachother

Now that's obvious

The exact way this plays out is highly nuanced(edited)

You have to track sentiment in others & volume & liquidity & time -(edited)

If there is dry liquidity, the inflexible are punished very easily If there is lots of liquidity, the inflexible have more leeway Mass sentiment is mass sentiment (that's the easy one) If an idea takes too much time, no matter what you may percieve to be sentiment, it's most probably shifting